Contribution of Dynamic Vegetation Phenology to Decadal Climate Predictability
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چکیده
منابع مشابه
Decadal Climate Predictability and Prediction
What: Forty-five researchers met to discuss strategies to better understand and predict decadal climate variability. When: 12–15 October 2009 Where: St. Michaels, Maryland T he importance of decadal climate variability (DCV) research is being increasingly recognized, including by the World Climate Research Program (WCRP) and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). An improved unde...
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The low-frequency climate variability simulated in the North Atlantic by a coupled ocean-at-mosphere model is diagnosed and compared to available observations. A variety of statisticalmethods is used to study the quasi-decadal (QD) oscillations. They tend to show that local di-rect interactions between the atmosphere and the ocean may help maintaining them. 1. Observed low-frequency...
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Seasonal-to-decadal predictions are inevitably uncertain, depending on the size of the predictable signal relative to unpredictable chaos. Uncertainties can be accounted for using ensemble techniques, permitting quantitative probabilistic forecasts. In a perfect system, each ensemble member would represent a potential realization of the true evolution of the climate system, and the predictable ...
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Any initial value forecast of climate will be subject to errors originating from poorly known initial conditions, model imperfections, and by “chaos” in the sense that, even if the initial conditions were perfectly known, infinitesimal errors can amplify and spoil the forecast at some lead time. Here the latter source of error is examined using a “perfect model” approach whereby small perturbat...
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Journal of Climate
سال: 2014
ISSN: 0894-8755,1520-0442
DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-13-00684.1